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The dollar surged and bitcoin reached a new record high Wednesday, November 6, as traders increasingly bet on a Donald Trump victory in the U.S. presidential race. Trump picked up wins in critical swing states, ramping up expectations of fresh tax cuts, tariffs, and inflation-driving policies that favor the greenback.
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Despite pre-election polls predicting a tight race, Trump appeared to be outpacing his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, as votes were counted. His wins in key states such as Georgia and North Carolina fueled a market rally driven by the so-called “Trump Trade.”
The dollar gained 1.5% to hit 154.33 yen, the highest level since July, while it also rose more than 1% against the euro and over 3% against the Mexican peso. Bitcoin surged nearly $6,000, reaching a record $75,330.88, surpassing its previous peak of $73,797.98 in March.
Trump’s campaign promises to establish the U.S. as the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world” and his intention to appoint tech billionaire Elon Musk to lead an audit of government waste have spurred investor enthusiasm in digital currency markets. Analysts noted that bitcoin’s price has mirrored Trump’s polling numbers, with a Republican victory potentially fueling further demand for digital assets.
A clean Republican sweep of Congress and the White House is expected to boost the dollar and Treasury yields, particularly due to Trump’s tax cut and tariff plans. However, such policies may increase inflation, potentially complicating efforts by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who has been focused on bringing inflation under control.
In anticipation of election-driven volatility, global markets saw mixed reactions. Tokyo’s Nikkei jumped more than 3% as exporters benefited from the weaker yen, while Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, and other Asian markets also posted gains. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 2% amid concerns over U.S.-China trade relations under a potential Trump presidency.
China remains closely attuned to the election’s outcome, as a Trump win could intensify trade tensions, with tariffs potentially affecting its economy. The election coincides with a critical meeting of Chinese leaders who are strategizing economic measures to support growth, especially as the country’s property sector faces a debt crisis.
